{"id":64742,"date":"2026-03-30T06:14:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T06:14:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/amazing-banzai.188-132-230-163.plesk.page\/index.php\/2026\/03\/30\/tupras-tuprs-hisseleri-icin-tum-zamanlarin-en-yuksek-hedef-fiyati-aciklandi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T06:14:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T06:14:10","slug":"tupras-tuprs-hisseleri-icin-tum-zamanlarin-en-yuksek-hedef-fiyati-aciklandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/amazing-banzai.188-132-230-163.plesk.page\/index.php\/2026\/03\/30\/tupras-tuprs-hisseleri-icin-tum-zamanlarin-en-yuksek-hedef-fiyati-aciklandi\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcpra\u015f (TUPRS) hisseleri\u00a0i\u00e7in t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek hedef fiyat\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Arac\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n T\u00dcPRA\u015e \u2013 T\u00fcrkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.\u015e.\u00a0(TUPRS) hisseleri i\u00e7in arac\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n\u00a0hedef fiyat<\/a>\u00a0a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 30 Mart g\u00fcn\u00fc rapor yay\u0131nlayan Garanti BBVA Yat\u0131r\u0131m, T\u00fcpra\u015f i\u00e7in yeni hedef fiyat\u0131n\u0131 belirledi. A\u00e7\u0131klanan hedef fiyat, hisse senedi i\u00e7in bug\u00fcne kadar arac\u0131 kurumlar taraf\u0131ndan belirlenen en y\u00fcksek hedef fiyat oldu. <\/p>\n

\"T\u00fcpra\u015f<\/figure>\n

Hedef fiyat haberleri \u2013 TUPRS hisse yorumu<\/h2>\n

Raporda \u015fu ifadeler kullan\u0131ld\u0131; \u201cMarjlar rekor seviyelerde seyrediyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da ya\u015fanan gerginli\u011fin etkisiyle jet ve dizel crack marjlar\u0131 2022\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelerin de \u00fczerine yerle\u015fti. Avrupa jet yak\u0131t\u0131 crack marjlar\u0131 Mart ay\u0131nda ortalamada 93$\/v\u2019ya (\u015eubat: 25$\/v), dizel marjlar\u0131 55,6$\/v\u2019ye (\u015eubat: 24,4$\/v), benzin marjlar\u0131 ise 21,8$\/v\u2019ye (\u015eubat: 14,6$\/v) y\u00fckseldi. T\u00fcpra\u015f i\u00e7in hesaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama \u00fcr\u00fcn marj\u0131 (WACM) ise 38,3$\/v\u2019ye (\u015eubat: 13,5 $\/v) ula\u015ft\u0131. T\u00fcpra\u015f 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00e7eyreklik bazda jet yak\u0131t\u0131 crack marj\u0131nda 44,9$\/v (2\u00c722), dizelde 45,4$\/v (4\u00c722), benzinde ise 35,5$\/v (2\u00c722) seviyelerini raporlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eirket ayn\u0131 zamanda bu d\u00f6nemde diferansiyellerden de 4-6$\/v fayda sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde
diferansiyel etkisinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu varsay\u0131yoruz. Finansallar ilk \u00e7eyrekte Mart marjlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisini yans\u0131tacak. Ay\u0131n son g\u00fcnlerinde marjlar\u0131n mevcut seviyelerde yatay seyretti\u011fi senaryoda; 1\u00c726 ortalamas\u0131nda jet yak\u0131t\u0131nda 43$\/v, dizelde 33$\/v, benzinde 16$\/v seviyeleri g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu varsay\u0131mlarla birlikte \u015firketin 1\u00c726 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n 6mlr USD, br\u00fct k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131n 850mn USD, faaliyet k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131n 630mn USD, FAV\u00d6K\u2019\u00fcn\u00fcn ise 700mn USD b\u00f6lgesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini bekleriz.
May\u0131s ay\u0131ndan itibaren crack marjlar\u0131nda kademeli normalle\u015fme, 2026 i\u00e7in baz senaryomuzu olu\u015fturuyor. 2026 tahminlerimizde dizel i\u00e7in 27$\/v, jet yak\u0131t\u0131 i\u00e7in 32$\/v, benzin i\u00e7in ise 21$\/v tahminiyle ilerliyoruz. Bu
operasyonel verilerle 2026\u2019da sat\u0131\u015f gelirlerinin 23,3mlr USD, faaliyet k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131n 1,878mn USD, FAV\u00d6K\u2019\u00fcn ise 2,173mn USD seviyesinde olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 modelliyoruz. Stok etkisi nedeniyle 2026\u2019da i\u015fletme sermayesinin
368.6mn USD artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun 2026 serbest nakit ak\u0131m\u0131 \u00fczerinde bir miktar bask\u0131 yaratabilece\u011fini tahmin ediyoruz. Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler marjlar \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131\/yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk unsuru olarak kalmaya edecek. Bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecine ili\u015fkin zamanlamaya ili\u015fkin bir tahmin yapamasak da olas\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f senaryosunda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn devreye girmesiyle marjlarda ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerine, kademeli bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekleriz. Marjlarda kademeli normalle\u015fme beklentimizi 4 fakt\u00f6re dayand\u0131r\u0131yoruz:<\/p>\n

1) H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den Akdeniz teslimlerinin 20-30 g\u00fcn, Kuzey Avrupa teslimlerinin ise 30-45 g\u00fcn olmas\u0131
2) Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da \u00fcretim d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalan rafinerilerin yeniden faaliyete ge\u00e7mesinin zaman alacak olmas\u0131
3) Normalle\u015fme d\u00f6neminin y\u00fcksek sezona denk gelmesi ve Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in uygun ortama sahip olmamas\u0131
4) Her jeopolitik kriz sonras\u0131 marjlar\u0131n uzun d\u00f6nem ortalamalar\u0131n daha \u00fczerine yerle\u015fme trendi
Normalle\u015fme s\u00fcrecinin uzamas\u0131 halinde \u015firketin bu durumdan fayda sa\u011flamaya devam etmesini bekleriz. 2. \u00e7eyre\u011fin mevcut marjlarla ge\u00e7ildi\u011fi senaryoda; \u00e7eyreklik bazda br\u00fct k\u00e2rda 0, FAV\u00d6K\u2019te ise u\u2019lik bir art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanabilir. Bu senaryonun de\u011ferlememize etkisi %5\u2019tir.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

TUPRS hisse hedef fiyat 2026<\/h2>\n

\u0130\u015fte arac\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n T\u00fcpra\u015f hissesi i\u00e7in belirledi\u011fi hedef fiyat ve tavsiyesi; Not:\u00a0Arac\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedef fiyatlar 12 ayl\u0131kt\u0131r ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme garantisi yoktur ancak s\u00f6z konusu beklentiler uzman analistler taraf\u0131ndan finansal tablo analizleri sonucu ortaya koyulmaktad\u0131r.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"T\u00fcpra\u015f<\/figure>\n

Garanti BBVA Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/h3>\n

Garanti BBVA Yat\u0131r\u0131m, TUPRS-T\u00fcpra\u015f i\u00e7in hedef fiyat\u0131n\u0131 264,8 TL\u2019den 367,3 TL\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti, tavsiyesini \u201cendeks \u00fcst\u00fc getiri\u201d olarak korudu<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Arac\u0131 Kurum<\/strong><\/td>\nGaranti BBVA Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hedef fiyat<\/strong><\/td>\n367,30 TL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Son fiyat (\u0130st: TUPRS)<\/strong><\/td>\n240,50 TL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tavsiye<\/strong><\/td>\nEndeks \u00fcst\u00fc getiri<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Prim potansiyeli<\/strong><\/td>\nR,72<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klanma tarihi<\/strong><\/td>\n30 Mart 2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

Kaynak:<\/strong>\u00a0ForInvest Haber, Garanti BBVA Yat\u0131r\u0131m Ara\u015ft\u0131rma<\/em><\/p>\n

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